Kylian Mbappé scored eight goals at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, including a hat-trick in the final against Argentina. France lost the trophy on penalties. Mbappé still won the Golden Boot. In June he begins the defence of that award in a tournament that, for the first time, gives top players an extra match in which to score.
The 2026 World Cup expands from 32 teams to 48. The number of matches a finalist plays goes from seven to eight. That single extra match, the new Round of 32, has been added between the group stage and the old Round of 16. For a striker on a team that goes deep, it is roughly 12 percent more minutes in which to score. That sounds small. In a Golden Boot race that has been settled by a single goal six times in the last eight tournaments, it is enormous.
What the Golden Boot actually rewards
The Golden Boot goes to the tournament's top scorer. Goals from open play, set pieces and penalties in regular and extra time all count. Goals from a penalty shoot-out do not. If two players are tied on goals, the tiebreaker is assists, then minutes played (fewer minutes wins). Mbappé won in 2022 because he scored eight to Lionel Messi's seven, despite Messi assisting more goals across the tournament.
The history of the award reads like a Who's Who of attacking football. Eusebio in 1966, Gerd Müller in 1970, Mario Kempes in 1978, Paolo Rossi in 1982, Gary Lineker in 1986, Salvatore Schillaci in 1990, Hristo Stoichkov and Oleg Salenko jointly in 1994, Davor Suker in 1998, Ronaldo in 2002, Miroslav Klose in 2006, Diego Forlán and Thomas Müller in a tied 2010, James Rodriguez in 2014, Harry Kane in 2018, and Mbappé in 2022.
Two patterns stand out. First, the winner usually plays for a side that reaches the semi-finals or further. Only Salenko (Russia, group stage) and Schillaci (Italy, third place) won as outliers. Second, the winning total has trended down. The five most recent winners scored eight, six, six, six and five goals respectively. Defending teams have caught up. The new Round of 32 may push that average back up.
Mbappé and the defending champion's path
Mbappé is 27 in June 2026. His prime is here. France enters the tournament as one of the favourites. The relevant question is not whether Mbappé scores, it is whether the format gives him enough chances. France's likely path through the new bracket includes a Round of 32 match against the runner-up of another European group, then a Round of 16 against a group winner, then quarter-final and semi-final ties. That is up to four knockout matches before any final, and four matches in which top forwards have historically been kept quiet by deep defensive blocks.
Where Mbappé tends to do his damage is the group stage. Across his three previous major-tournament appearances (2018, Euro 2020, 2022) he averaged a goal every 92 minutes in group games and a goal every 168 minutes in knockouts. Defenders sit deeper in knockouts. They take fewer risks. The 48-team format gives him one more group-stage style match (the Round of 32 against a likely weaker opponent) before the deep blocks start.
Erling Haaland's first World Cup
Norway qualified for the 2026 World Cup, the first appearance for the Norwegian senior team since 1998. For Haaland, that means a first World Cup appearance at age 25. He arrives having scored 36 Premier League goals in 2023-24 and a hat-trick in Norway's qualifying win over Estonia in October 2025.
The challenge is structural. Norway sits in Group I, and the path to the Golden Boot for any Norwegian player is heavily dependent on the team advancing past the group stage. Norway has never been past the Round of 16 at a World Cup. If Haaland plays only three or four matches, he needs to score on the order of two goals per game to compete for the award. That is achievable. He has done it across 90-minute periods in the Premier League regularly.
Vinicius Junior, Bellingham and the wider field
Vinicius Junior of Real Madrid carries Brazil's attacking weight in the post-Neymar era. He scored 24 goals across all competitions for Real in 2023-24 and was a Ballon d'Or candidate in 2025 (the Ballon d'Or is the annual award for the world's best men's footballer, voted by an international panel of journalists). Brazil's draw and depth at the back may matter more for his Golden Boot chances than his form. Brazil has been knocked out before the semi-finals at every World Cup since 2002.
Jude Bellingham was decisive at Euro 2024 and has settled into a free attacking-midfield role for England under Thomas Tuchel. He is an unconventional Golden Boot pick because he is not a front-line striker, but Lothar Matthäus, James Rodriguez and Diego Forlán were all attacking midfielders when they topped scoring lists in their respective tournaments. Bellingham can find the same air.
The dark-horse cluster includes Lautaro Martinez of Argentina (the defending champion's first-choice striker), Lamine Yamal of Spain (whose age and trajectory mean he could carry a tournament), and Robert Lewandowski of Poland (last-tournament window for a player still capable of scoring 25 club goals a season). Each can win the award if the bracket falls right.
The bet that makes mathematical sense
The format change favours strikers on group winners. Group winners in 2026 face a Round of 32 opponent likely to have qualified as a third-place finisher across the 12 groups. Those matches will be more open than knockouts traditionally are. Forwards on group winners get one more tournament match against weaker opposition than was available in any previous World Cup.
If you are choosing one name on systemic grounds, it is Mbappé. France has the depth to win its group. France has the bracket to play multiple opponents in poor form. France has a striker who has averaged a goal every 100 minutes across his three previous major tournaments. The new format hands him exactly the structure he has historically dominated.
The Golden Boot will not be settled until the final whistle of the Final on 19 July at MetLife Stadium. Until then, the smart money is on a player who has already won it once and now plays in a format engineered around his strengths. For the full schedule of every match where the contenders will start their campaigns, see our match schedule explorer.
